Read + Write + Report
Home | Start a blog | About Orble | FAQ | Blogs | Writers | Paid | My Orble | Login

Benkaiser.NET Investment Portal - Seeking The Alpha

 

Welcome to Benkaiser.NET Investment Portal, an alternative outlet of independent commentaries and views on investment and finance.

A joint-venture by On Topic Media PTY LTD and Benjamin C.

About Us

The Econs - Benkaiser.NET Investment Portal

Breaking News: China to abolish tax concessions for foreign firms

March 5th 2007 05:43
A draft proposal submitted by the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to the National People's Congress today for approval of a 10% increase of corporate tax on foreign firms to 25%, as the government seeks to build a unified corporate tax rate.

Benkaiser.NET Investment Portal takes the view that the Chinese moves could have an affect on the markets.

More here: Time to end tax benefits for foreign firms in China: Wen



68
Vote
Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


The iPod Index for Forex

January 18th 2007 06:42
Simply look at the iPod index to guage the direction of the foreign exchange markets. Thanks to CommSec.

" In a sign of the times, a Sydney-based bank has developed a new indicator for foreign exchange movements based on Apple's iPod music player, and as an alternative to the long-standing Big Mac Index.

Launched today, the CommSec iPod Index is predicting a 15 per cent drop in the Australia dollar against the US dollar - music to exporters' ears. "


Source: iPod Index predicts dollar slump


Benkaiser.NET: Soon we would be trading using iPods. Why not?
64
Vote
Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


The HK X'mas Present: Sino Golf Holdings

December 20th 2006 13:54
David M. Webb, a former investment banker who has lived in Hong Kong since 1991 provides an independent commentary on corporate and economic governance, business, finance, investment and regulatory affairs in Hong Kong on his Webb-site.com which is run on a not-for-profit basis, has a 2006 X'Mas stock pick for you. For six years, David has been dishing out his annual X'mas picks, with his stock pickings having beaten the Hang Seng Index by an extraordinary 455%.

However skepticism posted by a reader for pointing out that its not always possible to buy stock at the same price as it was the day before we picked it. David's reply went:

"... we note that after a cooling-off period, sometimes our picks actually go below where we tipped them, allowing a lower entry point, and sometimes they trade higher during the year than the year-end price, allowing a higher exit point and better returns, but we don't claim any credit for either of these in the track record above, so it probably all evens out in the wash."

This year's X'mas pick is Sino Golf Holdings. You can read up the details here, if you are interested or invests in Hong Kong shares.

As for me, I am more interested in his analysis and outlook for the Hong Kong market;

"In the last year, and particularly in the last few months, investors have, in our view, been indiscriminately exuberant over IPOs, commodities, energy and mainland consumer plays, and have lost sight of governance risk and fundamental valuation. A lot of hot money has also been chasing a narrow selection of large-caps, resulting in over-stretched valuations. Funds have been awash with cash and forced to invest it, and the retail public has begun to believe that all IPOs are guaranteed to make money just because some tycoon is buying it.

In Hong Kong, inbound liquidity to the mainland has kept mortgage rates artificially low and fuelled the property bubble. After a change in international accounting standards, companies' reported earnings now include property revaluation gains, but these represent the increase in the net present value of all the future years of income attributable to such assets, so they should be excluded when calculating the core P/E of the market, otherwise you are looking at a multiple on a multiple. Complacent analysts have been quoted as saying that the market's P/E is still "reasonable" or "attractive" at 14 or 15 despite recent record high prices. However, if you strip out property revaluations and other non-recurring items such as profits from sales of businesses, then the core P/E is now about 20, and it has spent very little time up there in the last 30 years. We haven't seen this much irrationality since the 1999-00 tech bubble, and you know what happened next. So look for a big sell-off of blue chips in the coming 12 months.

Meanwhile, if you do your homework, there are lot of cheap value stocks to choose from, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is emerging from a difficult 2 years in which margins were squeezed by rising raw material prices. These have now stabilised or in some cases have begun to fall, allowing recovery of margins as the higher costs are passed down the supply chain. Meanwhile, the electricity shortages you read so much about in 2004-5 have been much reduced this year, as China brings new capacity on stream. You will also have read about the 3% appreciation in the RMB - but that is partly because the standard quotation of the currency is against the US dollar. In fact, the RMB has actually depreciated around 8% against the Euro in the last year, making exports to Europe more attractive and accelerating the outsourcing of manufacturing to China. This has gone some way to mitigating the rising cost of labour in China, and factories are also meeting the challenge by moving inland as the transport infrastructure improves, and by increasing automation where possible."

(Benkaiser.NET: A case of behavioral finance at work when investors become irrational by not basing on the fundamentals. Therefore the story of mispricing through overreaction? an opportunity to make money before the reversion to mean.

The battle of market efficiency in the experiment. Perhaps, we shall term ordinary HK retail investors as The Chinese Mind? On the other hand, Webb's recommendation of small and obscure stocks has a basis as found by Fama and French 3 Factor Model. .)
65
Vote
Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


Dollar collapse unfounded but will continue south

December 19th 2006 02:03
Contrary to the so-called news, China to dump USD1 trillion, reported by Hal Turner, citing insider sources from the first rate US economic delegation to China, the "anticipated" Monday collapse of the US dollar was totally unfounded as the greenback slided on the back of a weaker than expected housing data and hazy economic outlook. In fact, China play wasn't in the scope and instead the Euro was the focus against the dollar.

Dollar to Decline Against Euro on Weaker Housing, BNP Predicts
[ Click here to read more ]
75
Vote
Read MoreRead More Comments (2)Comments (2) Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


Keep Chill: China's perspective of the dollar decline

December 18th 2006 12:07

"...the US dollar must depreciate gradually in an orderly fashion by just a small margin at a time so as not to affect the world economy. If the dollar depreciates on a large scale, the global economy would have to bear the consequences and emerging economic powers like China would take a heavy blow as much of their foreign exchange reserves are in US dollars."
[ Click here to read more ]
64
Vote
Read MoreRead More Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


Unconfirmed news: China to dump USD 1 trillion?

December 16th 2006 12:54
BEIJING, CHINA -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros!

China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday.
[ Click here to read more ]
66
Vote
Read MoreRead More Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


The Falling Dollar

December 15th 2006 05:49
No, But the Fed’s working to slow down its decline starting with high-level visit to China. WorldNetDaily.

Dec 13, 2006
[ Click here to read more ]
80
Vote
Read MoreRead More Comments (3)Comments (3) Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


Malaysia's (Ad Hoc) Economy

November 15th 2006 12:44
A true story that was consistently denied and nothing new. The piece piercing Malaysia's bumbling economic development and polices in The Age today by Michael Backman is yet another reminder to Malaysia, again, a country with great economic potential in terms natural and human resources, being managed by a class with a mindset seeking face value recognition and satisfaction. It's absolutely not new news but certainly denied in the country.

It does not take an external news media to recognise the shortcomings, as the following is a piece that runs parallel with the theme of Malaysia's reactionary economic policy, written by me two years ago. The title is simply "Ad Hoc"
[ Click here to read more ]
65
Vote
Read MoreRead More Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   


Asian Saving Habit

October 5th 2006 14:37
Found this article while doing a harddisk spring cleaning. A piece which was published in a Malaysian English-language newspaper, The Star, back in 2003.

Difficult to change Asian saving habits (The Star, 6th June, 2003)
[ Click here to read more ]
75
Vote
Read MoreRead More Add CommentsAdd Comments
[ Link ]
Posted By: Benjamin - Category: The Econs
   




[ Benkaiser.NET Investment Portal Home ] [ Create A New Post ]

Benjamin's Blogs

0 Vote(s)
0 Comment(s)
0 Post(s)
0 Vote(s)
0 Comment(s)
0 Post(s)
Moderated by Benjamin
Copyright © 2006 2007 2008 On Topic Media PTY LTD. All Rights Reserved. Design by Vimu.com.
On Topic Media ZPages: Sydney |  Melbourne |  Brisbane |  London |  Birmingham |  Leeds     [ Advertise ] [ Contact Us ] [ Privacy Policy ]