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A look into the Round Trip

September 9th 2007 09:02
As the local market closes ahead of the US and European markets, sentiment was relatively good with the media highlighting an 'ease in credit fears', and then only to be overturned completely the next day, thanks to US latest economic data; a surprise fall in jobs.

Because of the time difference, the local market is expected to dive tomorrow after a weekend of translating the negative news imported from across the Pacific.

The fall raised the risks of US economy heading to recession and coupled with the fall out from the credit squeeze, a slowdown in the US economy is to be expected in the near term.


Although the likelihood of a recession increased but the good grounding of the corporate sector is likely to hold the fort for awhile.

What is the impact of a recession in the US has on Australia?

Experts believe the effect would be less severe than in the past. Some even went on to say that Australia would be affected more by a Chinese economic downturn than US given the present circumstances of trade relations between Down Under and the two economic giants.

On the other hand, the technical side of things spell out something for us. Bespoke Invesment Group looked into the past and the recent index performance against moving averages to paint a possible picture of the US S&P 500 index in the near term.

The picture appears to be hazy, it seems.

Now let the chart and table speak for itself:






Now, do you have your seat belt?

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