It's certainly making money
November 15th 2006 01:58
I've been missing for the past three weeks due to my extremely tight schedule and commitments, so much, that I even neglected my portfolio (1.5 - EW) and market tracking during the period. I was completely clueless about the market because of my attention was needed somewhere else. As my attention was freed I realised Portfolio 1.5 - EW, throughout the neglected three weeks period, created wave of records that was a bit of surprise to me. I did not expect to perform so well.
Could it be by chance or indeed a practicle investment strategy? The results to date is certainly pointing to the direction that it is certainly working and making the money, no doubt. Can the success be replicated? Only consistent formulation and observation could confirm the hypothesis. Nevertheless, Portfolio 1.5 - EW was formulated from one fundamental technical factor with controls of factors such as number of shares traded and trading consensus. The outcome expected from this strategy is to expect an above average returns with little need of observing the current market trends and movements, as the formulating factor is a PREDICTIVE ELEMENT itself. The future state of market is to be expected to concur with the predictive outcomes from the factor. Hence, the lack of the need to observe the market closely.
I do not propose this as the truth but my absence throuout the three week period concured the fact that I believe it should be, as the orignal objective of observing the porfolio for forward three months from September is on its right track, it seems. The returns, observed casually, from 1st September, 2006, have since made a profit return of 285% to 10th November, 2006. Impressive result indeed but did the portfolio beat the market? What is the expected portfolio return and did it actually exceed or underperform the expected returns? What is its risk profile? What caused the momentum? What was the actual mechanism or was it just a pure fluke? Was it a case of mispricing or risk-based considerations?
All the questions above need to be answered to determine the practicality of this strategy and I hope I could do all the computations needed to find the answers. For the time being, a return of 285% or $12,816 in terms of PROFITS, is an absolute, but not relative, indication that the portfolio is bringing in the money, based on the simple point of view, that simple required returns of any investments or sales should be at least above the bank rates.
The following are the table and chart of profit returns observed sporadically.
The Birth of Portfolio 1.5 - EW
Could it be by chance or indeed a practicle investment strategy? The results to date is certainly pointing to the direction that it is certainly working and making the money, no doubt. Can the success be replicated? Only consistent formulation and observation could confirm the hypothesis. Nevertheless, Portfolio 1.5 - EW was formulated from one fundamental technical factor with controls of factors such as number of shares traded and trading consensus. The outcome expected from this strategy is to expect an above average returns with little need of observing the current market trends and movements, as the formulating factor is a PREDICTIVE ELEMENT itself. The future state of market is to be expected to concur with the predictive outcomes from the factor. Hence, the lack of the need to observe the market closely.
I do not propose this as the truth but my absence throuout the three week period concured the fact that I believe it should be, as the orignal objective of observing the porfolio for forward three months from September is on its right track, it seems. The returns, observed casually, from 1st September, 2006, have since made a profit return of 285% to 10th November, 2006. Impressive result indeed but did the portfolio beat the market? What is the expected portfolio return and did it actually exceed or underperform the expected returns? What is its risk profile? What caused the momentum? What was the actual mechanism or was it just a pure fluke? Was it a case of mispricing or risk-based considerations?
All the questions above need to be answered to determine the practicality of this strategy and I hope I could do all the computations needed to find the answers. For the time being, a return of 285% or $12,816 in terms of PROFITS, is an absolute, but not relative, indication that the portfolio is bringing in the money, based on the simple point of view, that simple required returns of any investments or sales should be at least above the bank rates.
The following are the table and chart of profit returns observed sporadically.
Table of Profit Returns
Chart of Momentum Profit Returns
The Birth of Portfolio 1.5 - EW
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