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Reducing risk is no rocket science

July 23rd 2007 10:21
It is essentially a gamble if you participate in the sharemarket or any risky investments without giving any consideration to risks. Even relatively safe monetary instruments like government bonds contain risks such as default and reinvestment risks albeit that they are relatively lower than that of the market that it makes such instruments seem almost riskless. Risk is everywhere.

One should never shy away from managing or reducing risk as it is not all rocket science as just some common sense will help you to make your investments a little more comfortable play. David Merkel of RealMoney.com, published in his blog 25 ways to reduce investment risk. They don't seem like some complicated financial engineering at all but just some relatively simple steps applicable for the retail investors.


Here are some of the simple strategies:

1. Diversify by industry, country, currency, inflation-sensitivity, yield, growth-sensitivity and market capitalization.

2. Diversify by asset class. Make sure you have liquid safe assets to complement risky assets. This is true whether you are young (tactical reasons) or old (strategic reasons).

3. Diversify by advisors; don’t get all of your ideas from one source (and that includes me). In a multitude of counselors, there is wisdom, which is something to commend RealMoney for — there is no “house view.”

4. Diversify into enough companies: better to have smaller positions in 15-20 companies, than 5 larger ones. When I began investing in single stocks 15 years ago, I started with 15 positions of $2,000 each. That made each $15 commission bite, but the added safety was worth it.


5. Avoid explicit leverage; don’t use margin.

6. Avoid shorting as well, unless you’ve got a profound edge; few are constitutionally capable of doing it well. Are you the exception?

7. Avoid implicit leverage. How much does the company in question rely on the kindness of the financing markets in order to continue its operations? Highly indebted companies tend to underperform.

8. Avoid balance sheet complexity; it can be a cover for accounting chicanery.

9. Analyze cash flow relative to earnings; be wary of companies that produce earnings, but not cash flow from operations, or free cash flow.

10. Avoid owning popular companies; they tend to underperform.


Read the rest here: Twenty-Five Ways to Reduce Your Investment Risk

Be it whether you are investing in any asset class, please give risk a thought just like how you would buy life insurance for yourself. It is better to be safe than sorry and after all investment is not gambling. You are purchasing the best possible financial freedom for the future. Well most are.
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The Concept of Risk and Return

June 15th 2007 12:26
Under the Investment Framework, investments are generally referred as assets with returns that are contingent upon future events unlike bank term investments with guaranteed returns (interest earnings) and generally risk-free.

Theoretically
Investments that are discussed here involve the trade off between current and future consumption. It is this trade off, the delay of current consumption by allocating resources into investment assets with an expectation of generating more resources for future consumption, that determine the rate of return and risk. The return is actually a mode for compensating the loss of current consumption opportunity. Hence the rate of return is also described as the rate of exchange of between future and current consumption.

Generally the rate of a return of an investment acts as an incentive for deferring current consumption. The other rationale for rate of return is the time value of money in which the degree of purchasing power in the future is affected by inflation. For instance, the value of money today is greater than the future as in the event of a future inflation rise, more money is needed to purchase an item than it was before.

The compensation does end with the trade off discussed earlier but its also affected by uncertainty as inflow of resources (future cash flow) are contingent upon future events that are favorable to the investment asset. But remember, future events that negatively affect the future cash flow could occur as well; therefore the issue of risk arises. And as such taking the risk in investing requires compensation as well, and the rate of return is adjusted accordingly to the degree of uncertainty.

Mathematically

There are two methods of obtaining realized returns; arithmetic and geometric, but in practice the arithmetic is usually used as it produce higher return values than the geometric method. Rate of return takes the form of percentage. The generic definition of return is the change in value of an investment asset over the holding period.

Arithmetic Return (Discrete/Simple Return)

Rt = (Pt – Pt-1) / P t-1

Geometric Return (Continuous Compounding)
This method of return calculation assumes that returns earned during the holding period are reinvested at the same rate of return whereas Arithmetic Return assumes returns earned during the period are immediately realized.

R = (1ADD Rt)^n – 1

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R = return
t = time period
P = value or price of the investment
n = number of holding periods.


Expected Return

So far the discussion of return was in the context of realized return, another important element is expected return which is the future return of an investment asset subjected to future conditions or events. Realized return and expected return will be the same if future expectations are met. There could be a range of possible returns which are usually forecasted beforehand and each of the forecasted return will be given a probability weight obtained from analyzing data and prudent extrapolation.

E(r) = p1(r1) ADD p2(r2) ADD … ADD pn(rn)

Alternatively, expected return can be described as the expected average return of an investment.

Risk
The mathematical notion of investment risk is fronted by the statistical measure of variance, which is the deviation of each observation (returns) from the expected value (average return). Each point is then given a weight with heavier weights given to observations nearer to the average.

Var^2 = p1(r1 – E(r))^2 ADD p2(r2-E(r))^2 ADD … ADD pn(rn – E(r))^2

However, the standard practice is to use standard deviation rather than deviation which is the square root of the variance and therefore retains the same risk ranking.

--
P= probability (0 to 1)
R= return
N=holding period

Having discussed the basic concepts of risk and return which form the main elements of the investment framework, there are no clear cut prescribed methods of making a successful investment but these two elements provide an investor with the tools to evaluate the choice of alternatives. For instance, Asset A and Asset B have the same expected return of 10% but A has a lower standard deviation (risk) of 0.02 and B is 0.05, and in the assumption of a risk averse investor, Asset A will be the better choice of investment.

What was presented above is a mere basic outline of the framework which is to provide you with an idea how investment decisions are made using the elements of risk and return, at the theoretical level. The field of investment, academically and in practice, can be very complicated and could extend to other disciplines such as psychology and pure mathematics. But nonetheless, pocket the concept of risk and return as invesments are generally based on these two essential elements.


*Note: The Addition Sign, due to some various reason, could not be displayed. The Portal apologise for the inconvenience caused and will rectify the problem as soon as possible.
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Related Posts:

Making the Move
Investment Framework: The Basics

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Investment Framework: The Basics

June 12th 2007 09:48
Investment is often generally defined as contribution of resources in order to gain more resources. The resource is usually in the form of money. Ultimately the objective of investment is to make profitable gains of money invested one way or another. It defies logic if the purpose is to make a loss.

Investment is increasingly becoming a need as much as insurance and therefore it is no longer sensible just to protect but also to seek growth. Time is not a friend of money as time moves forward the value of money usually moves backward. Earning interests above the inflation rate is one way to protect the value but it is miniscule and there are many forms of investment vehicles that could generate returns well beyond the bank rates provided you take the risks.

Although the notion of investment sounds good but it can be confusing for many. One way is to consult a financial planner for professional planning and advice. However it is wise to understand the fundamentals than being completely clueless. Be part of the game plan as you are the main driver as any experts you sought, if any, are just your navigator to assist you to arrive at your goals.

Your Goals, Your Objectives

Every invididual invest for a variety of reasons: for your dream home, your retirement, your kids or simply just want to accumulate wealth. However there is no single medium of investment applicable to all the objectives.

It is crucial that you identify your financial objectives as they set the general outline of the investment plan and lenght of time to achieve the goals.

The plan incorporates the suitable investment mediums, risk profile and the time horizon. An essential element is how long do you want your plan to go? Generally there are three time horizons which are as follow:

Short Term (0-2 years)
Medium Term (2-5 years)
Long Term (5 years or more)

Take some time and think about your time horizon.

Profiling, Returns and Risks

Most investments involve risks as expected returns are affected by a variety of factors and the desired level of return may not be achieved. Hence the famous relationship of "High Risk High Returns" which basically explains the positive relationship of risk and return.

As such, it is imperative to determine the level of return you seek and the amount of potental risk or the variablity of returns you can afford. Risk profiling is not just a necessity but an extremely crucial element that act as your point of reference of when to pull out when necessary, which further enhance the usefulness of your investment plan if used wisely.

There are different classes of assets available to match your invesment profile as highlighted above. Different class suit different objectives, rate of returns and risk levels, and the investment plan could allocate the assets accordingly. Generally, there are two broad categories of asset class:

- Growth assets
- Defensive assets

Defensive assets as the name suggest is suitable for potential investors with lower risk profile while Growth assets accomodate the opposite. And of course not to remember the level of returns are commensurate to the level of risks.

The financial industry today offers a great variety of invesment vehicles such as superannuation, mutual funds, retirement plans, investment properties, and income investments and consumers are basically spoilt for choice but selecting the right one requires careful evaluation for which the investment plan comes in handy.

The purpose of the Investment Education series is to provide a general framework of understanding investments but the principal focus will be on shares which is one of the most common and accessible investment medium available. Until then, start thinking and work out some draft outlines of your objectives.

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Related Posts:

Making the Move


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Making the Move

June 11th 2007 09:05
A week ago I was asked for advice on a particular Malaysian stock which was listed on 1st June. The question was whether it was the right time to buy that stock, which belongs to the Oil and Gas sector, after a massive surge on Monday 4th June. Those who managed to buy on Friday made some tidy profits.

Given that I am not following the Malaysian stock market I wasn't able to provide any specific advice except for some general ones which were mainly related to being prudent and not be carried away buy the surging positive momentum which I suspect was speculative. But the person seeking the advice was on the speculative gear as well.

[ Click here to read more ]
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