Sentiment Drops
September 11th 2007 11:21
With less than four months to go before rolling into 2008, what lies for the year ahead? For a start, investor confidence for one year range ahead dived in line with the current volatile and shaky market condition.
This is what market participants believe, perhaps for now, assuming the negative views were formulated from the current clumsy market situation.
Bespoke Investment Group found that since last month five out of the six major confidence indicators observed closely by investors are in the negative breath.
The sole positive measurement however stands out in its own right for measuring how investors are actually investing while the remaining five indicators gauge investors sentiment.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Seeing a sea of red already speaks volume for the general level of investors confidence of the market a year ahead.
Like the current investor sentiment, trade volume recently has been rather lackluster as well that warrants some worrying, despite the relatively positive bounce since the Feds intervened with the discount rate.
Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, in his weekly market commentary on 3rd September, wrote:
' the market climate for stocks remained characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action. The market has now cleared the oversold condition that we observed several weeks ago, yet breadth and trading volume have not evidenced the strength and persistence that we typically associate with more sustained recoveries from oversold conditions. That’s not to say that we can’t observe further market strength, but at present we have no evidence either from valuations or from market action to reliably speculate on such strength.'
Given the combination of the credit fall out, decline in US job vacancies and the lack of strong investor confidence, it is therefore not too much to say whether an expectation of a rebound can be warranted as we have been told and wanted to believe all this while.
Always expect the unexpected.
This is what market participants believe, perhaps for now, assuming the negative views were formulated from the current clumsy market situation.
Bespoke Investment Group found that since last month five out of the six major confidence indicators observed closely by investors are in the negative breath.
The sole positive measurement however stands out in its own right for measuring how investors are actually investing while the remaining five indicators gauge investors sentiment.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Seeing a sea of red already speaks volume for the general level of investors confidence of the market a year ahead.
Like the current investor sentiment, trade volume recently has been rather lackluster as well that warrants some worrying, despite the relatively positive bounce since the Feds intervened with the discount rate.
Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, in his weekly market commentary on 3rd September, wrote:
' the market climate for stocks remained characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action. The market has now cleared the oversold condition that we observed several weeks ago, yet breadth and trading volume have not evidenced the strength and persistence that we typically associate with more sustained recoveries from oversold conditions. That’s not to say that we can’t observe further market strength, but at present we have no evidence either from valuations or from market action to reliably speculate on such strength.'
Given the combination of the credit fall out, decline in US job vacancies and the lack of strong investor confidence, it is therefore not too much to say whether an expectation of a rebound can be warranted as we have been told and wanted to believe all this while.
Always expect the unexpected.
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